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Today's Storm Prediction Center Outlook - [click here]
Last Update by Bobby on 05/13/2010, 3:35 AM
 Visit the Storm Prediction Center for more products. Current Advisories, Watches, Warnings and NOAA Severe Weather Notifications |
- Quick Three Day Forecast
- Overnight: Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind.
Thursday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 6 and 9 mph.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light south southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Light northwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Overnight Patchy Fog Lo 55 °F | Thursday Patchy Fog Hi 85 °F | Thursday Night  Slight Chc Tstms Lo 61 °F | Friday Chance Tstms Hi 83 °F | Friday Night  Chance Tstms Lo 60 °F | Saturday Slight Chc Tstms Hi 81 °F | Saturday Night  Partly Cloudy Lo 56 °F | Sunday Chance Tstms Hi 77 °F | Sunday Night  Chance Tstms Lo 57 °F |
- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Thunderstorm activity is expected...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
158
FXUS62 KGSP 130720
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT THU MAY 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE OOZING ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS CTRL/ERN NC. IN FACT...THE NAM BRINGS THE BOUNDARY
INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE DAY. EVEN IF THIS
VERIFIES...THE ONLY IMPACT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BE A
WIND SHIFT AND MAYBE SOME ENHANCED COLD COVER. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE...IT APPEARS THE ATM WILL BE TOO SUPPRESSED/
CAPPED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE NAM POOLS HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODEL/S CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS FAILING
TO ACTIVATE. THIS IS RATHER TELLING...SINCE THE NAM OFTEN OVER-
RESPONDS TO HIGH INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL CARRY A TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NC.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE HOT...A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
SLIGHT CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
IN FACT...IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR DURING THE NEAR TERM...IT MAY BE
MORE LIKELY TO FIRE OVER THE MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MAKING A SLIGHT SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. THIS SEAMS REASONABLE AS MODELS DEVELOP
1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS AS MOISTURE POOLS IN A LEE TROUGH. THE WESTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE NAM 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
PUSHING 30 KTS BY LATE AFTN OVER THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AREAS NORTH OF I-40. IN THIS AREA THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY
ACQUIRE SOME AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION...FORMING SMALL BOWS AND LEWPS.
COVERAGE WON/T BE AS GREAT OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO FORM AS
WELL...ALBEIT MORE OF THE PULSE SEVERE VARIETY.
THE TRUE SFC COLD FRONT WON/T MOVE IN THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF CAPE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS HAPPENS. I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ACTIVITY GO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND I/VE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UP TO 6 UTC SAT
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FA.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...IN LOOKING AT THE SREF AND OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS...IS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN...BUT MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY. CAEPS MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY. I/VE RAISED POPS A LITTLE...INTO THE CHANCE RANGE OVER ALL
BUT THE NRN COUPLE ZONE GROUPS WHERE THE AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER. THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE MODESTLY DRY...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE
DRYING IS LIKELY TO BE BRIEF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS TAKES THE ENERGY THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SW
STATES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PAST RUNS. THIS APPEARS TO SHIFT
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE MTNS SUN NGHT AND MONDAY. THE
12 UTC ECMWF WAS ALSO TRENDING THAT WAY...BUT WAS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH WITH IT/S AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN. WE/LL STILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF PCPN MON AND TUE...AND THE MODELS COULD ALWAYS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME...THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WET. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE ON THIS SHIFT...I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD GRIDS...THOUGH I DID CUT BACK POPS ON SUNDAY AS THE
AIRMASS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
PCPN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING A WARM
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR REGION VERY EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY THEN MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOR THE MOST PART LIMITED TO AREAS FROM
THE FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO ACROSS THE UPSTATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE HIGH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL OFFER SOME RESISTANCE TO WARM FRONT NORTHERN MOVEMENT. AS WE
GET MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR
AND CONVECTIVE WAVES WILL BE INCREASING FROM ACROSS GEORGIA TO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. A PROLONGED OFF AND ON RAIN EVENT WILL CREATE
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOIL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR ANY FLOODING THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY AND THEN
EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN ON
MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AND THEN WARM TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO DRYING OUT IN
MID WEEK.
&&
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK
Mar 28, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Mar 28 06:01:11 UTC 2010 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic 
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic 
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic 
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic 
CLICK TO GET SPC PRODUCTExperimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 28 05:00:03 UTC 2010
Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Graphic valid from 12Z to 16Z Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Graphic valid from 16Z to 20Z Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Graphic valid from 20Z to 0Z Note: The experimental enhanced resolution thunder probabilities take into account both the expected areal coverage and probability for thunder to occur. Therefore, a 40% probability means that given similar environmental conditions, thunder would be observed at any one location (in either a county or city) within the 40% thunder probability area four times out of ten, or 40% of the time. Note: The experimental enhanced resolution thunderstorm outlooks resumed public access on March 1, 2010. Please click here for a description of the revised outlook product. Please click here for the Product Description Document (PDD).
Public comment period has ended on February 5, 2010. After analysis of the responses a decision will be made by May 15, 2010 on how to proceed.
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